Every year about this time, I begin taking the long-range weather forecast seriously. I get this online from National Weather Service.
Some years ago I discovered how much fun it is to write down the predicted temperatures for the next 10 days and continue doing that each day. It simply amazes me how much the prediction for any one day can change over a period of 10 days.
For instance, the weather for March 17, St. Patrick’s Day, has gone from cold to warm, sunny to cloudy, rainy to showery. Even so, it is possible to see trends and that seems the key to understanding this data.
Of course April 1 is a big one for me, it being the first day of open water fishing in brooks, streams and rivers. And every day, beginning about now, I either smile or frown, become elated or mildly depressed, depending upon what that 10-day forecast says.
Along with their predictions, the online forecast also gives average high and low temperatures. So for me, it’s comforting to know that the average opening day of fishing season temperature is in the high 40s. That means, of course, that it could turn out much warmer.
On the other hand, I have gone out and tried to fish on April 1 in blinding blizzards, times when it was so cold that my fishing line froze to the rod. I always hope that those days won’t happen again. But they will, of course.
It’s great fun to play around with predictions and averages. But it all just points out one thing. There is nothing more unpredictable than the Maine weather.